Egyptian Cleric Ali Abu Al-Hasan: In Several Decades, "Europe Will Become a Single Islamic State"

The old man, isn't to far off the cuff on this one:

Unfortunately Austria is heading the same way as Germany already

Now I'm only referencing this video as a guideline, many things about it are quite questionable. I'll mention a few:

  • In the Netherlands, 50% of all newborns are Muslim.

  • As of 2004, Muslims comprised about 5.8% of the population of the Netherlands. In order for this small percentage of the population to account for "50% of all newborns," Muslim women in the Netherlands would have to be giving birth, on average, to about 14 to 16 times as many babies each as non-Muslim women. 

  • France: 1.8 children per family; Muslims, 8.1

  • We can't make out what source the video is citing as the basis of this statistic, but the BBC noted that:
    The French government doesn't collect statistics by religion, so it is impossible to say what the precise fertility rates among different religious groups in France are.

    But no country on earth has such a high fertility rate, and in Algeria and Morocco, the two nations which send the largest numbers of Muslim immigrants to France, the fertility rate is 2.38, according to the UN's 2008 figur

  • Currently in Belgium, 25% of the population and 50% of all newborns are Muslim.

  • Muslims are the second-largest religious group in Belgium, but they still only account for about 4%-5% of the population. And, as noted above, for that small a segment of the population to be accounting for "50% of all newborns" in the country, Muslim women would have to be giving birth to incredibly large numbers of children each. 

  • The German government, the first to talk about this publicly, recently released a statement saying: "The fall in the German population can no longer be stopped. Its downward spiral is no longer reversible. It will be a Muslim state by the year 2050."

  • The quoted statement was made by Walter Radermacher, the vice-president of the Germany's Federal Statistical Office. However, he was speaking only of German population trends in general; the final sentence (about Germany's becoming a "Muslim state") is someone else's words, as he affirmed to the BBC:
    The quotation which reads as if the German government believed that Germany will become a Muslim state is simply not true. There is no source which can be quoted that the German government has published such an expression or opinion.

  • "There are currently 52 million Muslims in Europe. The German government said that number is expected to double in the next 20 years.

  • The 52 million figure is a reasonable estimate for the number of Muslims in Europe. However, as the last part (about the Muslim population's doubling in the next two decades), Walter Radermacher said:
    That is not true. The German government does not believe that the Muslim population will double in [even] the next 40 or 50 years. There are no reliable sources that give a proof for that assumption.
    But the truth is there is certainly a trend of high migration and high fertility rates. A study of Muslim populations worldwide by the Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion & Public Life, "The Future of the Global Muslim Population: Projections for 2010-2030:

    "In Europe as a whole, the Muslim share of the population is expected to grow by nearly one-third over the next 20 years, rising from 6% of the region's inhabitants in 2010 to 8% in 2030. In absolute numbers, Europe's Muslim population is projected to grow from 44.1 million in 2010 to 58.2 million in 2030. The greatest increases -- driven primarily by continued migration -- are likely to occur in Western and Northern Europe, where Muslims will be approaching double-digit percentages of the population in several countries. In the United Kingdom, for example, Muslims are expected to account for 8.2% of the population in 2030, up from an estimated 4.6% today. In Austria, Muslims are projected to reach 9.3% of the population in 2030, up from 5.7% today; in Sweden, 9.9% (up from 4.9% today); in Belgium, 10.2% (up from 6% today); and in France, 10.3% (up from 7.5% today). (See the Europe section of the full report for more details.)

    Several factors account for the faster projected growth among Muslims than non-Muslims worldwide. Generally, Muslim populations tend to have higher fertility rates (more children per woman) than non-Muslim populations. In addition, a larger share of the Muslim population is in, or soon will enter, the prime reproductive years (ages 15-29)."


    "Western Europe, which includes France, Germany and the Netherlands, is expected to have the biggest numerical increase in the size of its Muslim population. The number of Muslims living in this part of Europe is projected to increase by 5.1 million, from 11.3 million in 2010 to 16.4 million in 2030. The Muslim share of Western Europe’s total population is expected to increase from 6.0% in 2010 to 8.6% in 2030.
    The number of Muslims living in Northern Europe, which includes the United Kingdom, is expected to increase from 3.8 million in 2010 to 7.5 million in 2030. Muslims are expected to make up 7.0% of Northern Europe’s population, up from 3.8% in 2010."

    Those of you living in United States...

    "In the United States, for example, the population projections show the number of Muslims more than doubling over the next two decades, rising from 2.6 million in 2010 to 6.2 million in 2030, in large part because of immigration and higher-than-average fertility among Muslims... Although several European countries will have substantially higher percentages of Muslims, the United States is projected to have a larger number of Muslims by 2030 than any European country other than Russia and France."
    And Great Britain:

    "The United Kingdom is expected to have the largest increase in the number of Muslims in Europe in the next 20 years. The number of Muslims in the U.K. is projected to almost double from 2.9 million in 2010 to 5.6 million in 2030. By 2030, Muslims are expected to make up 8.2% of the U.K.’s population, up from 4.6% in 2010. The United Kingdom is forecast to have roughly the same number of Muslims as Germany by 2030."


    "Russia will continue to be the European country with the largest Muslim population in the next 20 years. (For more information on Russia’s Muslim population, see sidebar on page 128.) The number of Muslims in Russia is expected to grow from 16.4 million in 2010 to 18.6 million in 2030. Muslims are projected to make up 14.4% of Russia’s total population in 2030, up from 11.7% in 2010." 


    France’s Muslim population is expected to climb from 4.7 million in 2010 to 6.9 million in 2030. Germany’s Muslim population is expected to increase from 4.1 million to 5.5 million" 


    • Nearly a quarter (23.2%) of Israel's population is expected to be Muslim in 2030, up from 17.7% in 2010 and 14.1% in 1990. During the past 20 years, the Muslim population in Israel has more than doubled, growing from 0.6 million in 1990 to 1.3 million in 2010. The Muslim population in Israel (including Jerusalem but not the West Bank and Gaza) is expected to reach 2.1 million by 2030.

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